NFL Supercontest, Week Three

The replacement referees have been such an unmitigated disaster that oddsmakers are now shifting their lines a half-point in favor of the home teams for many games.  And home teams' crowds are not the only ones influencing calls - diva receivers can now draw pass interference calls through the sheer force of their personalities,  which has resulted in over/under lines being higher this week than they have ever been in the history of Vegas over/under lines.  What's a handicapper to do?  After pulling out a 4-1 Week Two, I'm now ultra-confident, which means 0-5 is a very real possibility.  These lines and picks are for entertainment purposes only.  

TITANS (+3.5) over Lions

Full disclosure:  There is no real logic behind this pick.  The Titans have looked awful, and Chris Johnson is already complaining to the media about Tennessee's offensive execution.  Meanwhile, the Lions seem due to have an offensive breakout, and the Titans' pathetic pass defense appears to be a likely victim.  Despite all this, I like the desperate 0-2 team at home, and I think Jake Locker takes advantage of a suspect Detroit pass defense.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars

In my mind, there is no reason why any team in the league should be favored by fewer than six points when hosting the Jaguars.  Maybe it's just personal bias, but seriously, the next game wherein Blaine Gabbert looks like a viable NFL QB will be his first.  I realize that Andrew Luck is a rookie and will have a few dud games this season, but these games are far likelier to take place on the road and/or against superior competition.  The Colts have the feel of a team that will get much better as the season progresses because of the learning curves associated with breaking in a rookie QB and coach and implementing a new defensive system.  Add it up, and Indy wins by at least seven points.

BROWNS (+3) over Bills

The Bills are similar to the Colts in that I sense that I will love them at home and hate them on the road all season long.  Trent Richardson has the look of a star in the making, and I liked what Brandon Weeden showed last week after a brutal Week One.  C.J. Spiller may have put together a couple great weeks, but he still has to prove to me that he can be an effective every-down back at his size.  He'll go a long way toward convincing me with another solid performance Sunday, but the Browns would be dumb to not key on him all game long.  In what should be a tight affair, I like getting points with the home team.

SAINTS (-8.5) over Chiefs

One of these games, the Saints will eviscerate an opposing defense, put up 49 points, and remind everyone of the good old days.  I think this is that game, but I also can't dismiss the possibility of the Chiefs putting up 42 points on a Saints defense that just looks lost right now.

Falcons (+3) over CHARGERS

The Chargers' defense has looked solid in its first two games, but Atlanta presents a major upgrade in competition from Oakland and Tennessee.  Philip Rivers is a special talent, but he seems to do just enough to lose against top-flight teams despite putting up gaudy numbers (his game against the Packers last season is a perfect example of this).  Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has historically put up pedestrian numbers but has played a consistent, winning brand of football.  It's been well-documented that the Falcons are airing it out more this year, and Ryan has played superbly in the new offense.  When it comes to picking this game, I just don't trust that the Chargers' 2-0 start indicates that they're an elite team.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are almost certainly elite.  The three points Vegas is giving Atlanta makes this an easy pick.

Last Week's Record:  4 - 1

Season Record:  5 - 5

Games That I Didn't Pick:

BEARS (-7.5) vs. Rams

COWBOYS (-7.5) vs. Buccaneers

49ers (-6.5) vs. VIKINGS

REDSKINS (-3) vs. Bengals

Jets (-2.5) vs. DOLPHINS

Eagles (-3.5) vs. CARDINALS

Texans (-1.5) vs. BRONCOS

Steelers (-4) vs. RAIDERS

RAVENS (-3) over Patriots

Packers (-3) vs. SEAHAWKS