No NFL pick is as tantalizing as a home underdog. This is especially true this year, when underdogs are playing almost .500 ball straight up. To this end, I've decided to take all five home dogs this week and see where the chips fall. These lines and picks are for entertainment purposes only.
(Home team in CAPS)
BENGALS (+4) over Broncos
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Now that the Broncos have fully established themselves as an elite or near-elite team, they will have to be wary of getting opponents' best efforts. Such is the case this weekend, when the Bengals will be fighting for their lives at home. The Broncos have struggled against top-flight teams (Atlanta and Houston) and absolutely destroyed lower-rung teams (Raiders and Saints). The Bengals, on the other hand, are more on the Chargers' level in terms of overall quality, and I would expect this contest to be hard fought into fourth quarter.
COLTS (+2) over Dolphins
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The Dolphins have been a revelation this year with a stout defense and an unforeseen level of competence at the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill is listed as probable for Sunday's game, and there is a chance that he lights up a Colts secondary that can look overmatched at times. On the other hand, it seems that the Colts believe they have something special going in battling for cancer-stricken coach Chuck Pagano, and I frankly can't believe they're getting points at home.
BROWNS (+3.5) over Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a bye and should be looking to maintain respectability after getting housed by the Texans in their last game. Still, Baltimore is banged up, and Trent Richardson should get the ball plenty against a Ravens defense that has been getting gashed on the ground. This is the home dog I feel least confident picking, but hey, there's no looking back now.
JAGUARS (+4.5) over Lions
It hurts to pick the Jaguars after spending eight weeks railing against Blaine Gabbert. But come on, there's no way the Lions should be getting points on the road, and quite a few points at that. Detroit stood tall last week, but the Lions are too inconsistent to trust on the road, especially against a defense that has been improving week to week.
TITANS (+3.5) over Bears
The Bears' string of defensive touchdowns ends this week. The Bears defense will still stand tall and not allow many points, but their offensive line troubles are here to stay, and they finally catch up with Chicago this week. Being the Bears, they will probably still pull this game out, but it will be in the same vein as last week (i.e. last second Gould field goal).
Last Week's Record: 2 - 3
Season Record: 24 - 16
Games That I Didn't Pick:
PACKERS (-10) vs. Cardinals
TEXANS (-10) vs. Bills
REDSKINS (-3) vs. Panthers
SEAHAWKS (-4.5) vs. Vikings
RAIDERS (-1.5) vs. Buccaneers
GIANTS (-3) vs. Steelers
FALCONS (-4) vs. Cowboys
SAINTS (-3) vs. Eagles
