NFL Supercontest, Week Four

The Packers became the sacrificial lamb whose offering was necessary to get the real referees back.  So, you're welcome, every other NFL fan base.  With time and distance comes perspective, but I'm convinced we'll look back at the replacement referees' stint as an even greater debacle as the weeks go on.  I always understood that the replacement referees would miss more calls than the regulars, but what I underestimated was the replacements contribution to a glacial pace of play and their ability to be cowed by players and coaches alike.  They will not be missed.  These lines and picks are for entertainment purposes only.  

(Home team in CAPS)

Patriots (-4) over BILLS

After last year's thriller in Buffalo between these two teams, the Bills will not be able to sneak up on the Patriots this time around.  The Bills' defense has started to come around after Buffalo's week one debacle, but without C.J. Spiller, I doubt that Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills' offense will be able to keep up with the Patriots.  Without Aaron Hernandez, the Patriots are unable to create the same mismatches that they once were with their double tight end sets.  Still, Wes Welker is almost impossible to shut down and is a great centerpiece for a ball-control-oriented offense, and I have been very impressed with the Patriots running game thus far.  It's tough to bet against a ticked-off Tom Brady, even though I could easily see this game being close until the end.

Bengals (-2.5) over JAGUARS

I've picked against Jacksonville twice so far and been wrong both times.  I don't care because no one can convince me that Blaine Gabbert is a viable starting quarterback (though he's really good at completing game-saving bombs for whatever reason).  The Bengals, on the other hand, are beginning to win with their offense for a change.  Also, over the past two seasons, Cincinnati has been a team that consistently beats weak opponents and loses to superior ones.  NFL games are never predictable, but it's comforting to pretend that this type of track record will mean something in this game. 

RAMS (+3) over Seahawks

Divisional game.  Frisky home team getting points.  Bad officiating karma coming home to roost for the road team.  The loathsome Pete Carroll.  Add it up, and I suddenly don't care that I struggle to see St. Louis moving the ball against Seattle.  And did I mention that I can't stand Pete Carroll?

Giants (+2.5) over EAGLES

If Andy Reid can't figure out how to start feeding LeSean McCoy, this might be the game where we see the inevitable Michael Vick injury take place.  Against a top-tier defensive line, I can't see the Eagles' turnover issues subsiding.  Also, even though Philadelphia has been excellent on defense, Eli Manning is locked in right now and will be able to move the ball.  A night game in Philadelphia can be a tough draw, but the Giants are simply too well-coached to not persevere in the fourth quarter. 

Bears (+3.5) over COWBOYS

I get that DeMarcus Ware could and probably will wreak havoc on the beleaguered Chicago offensive line.  Aside from that, how is this a good matchup for the Cowboys?  The Bears run a notably disciplined cover two scheme on defense, and Tony Romo will be forced to put together long drives to score points.  I see the Bears being able to contain DeMarco Murray and relying on sacks and Cowboys penalties to hold Dallas to field goals.  It's easy to be underwhelmed by the Bears' offense, but I would trust that Mike Tice will fashion a game plan that emphasizes the run game and keeps this contest close. 

Last Week's Record:  2 - 3

Season Record:  7 - 8 

Games That I Didn't Pick

BUCCANEERS (-3) vs. Redskins

FALCONS (-7) vs. Panthers

Vikings vs. LIONS - No Line

49ers (-4) vs. JETS

Chargers (-1) vs. CHIEFS

TEXANS (-12) vs. Titans

CARDINALS (-5.5) vs. Dolphins

BRONCOS (-6.5) vs. Raiders

PACKERS (-7.5) vs. Saints